The Projected Supply and Demand for Nurses

Over the past decade, the Western world has become increasingly concerned about the nursing workforce due to an anticipated gap between supply and demand. This expectation is based on projections indicating that the demand for nurses will exceed the supply as a result of population aging and the consequent increase in the percentage of elderly people who will require assistance. The current study is designed to contribute to the planning of the nursing workforce in Israel. It projects the demand for nurses, examines the balance between the projected supply and demand, and discusses the implications for planning the nursing workforce in Israel.

Several demand projection models were used to assess the expected balance between supply and demand through 2030. All of these models project a significant shortage of nurses in 2030, with results variation with regard to the extent of the shortage. They also indicate that the extent of the expected shortage is significantly influenced by assumptions about the ages at which the nurses will retire.

The findings, which relate to a variety of timeframes, provide policymakers with an important basis for nursing workforce planning. They are now serving the Ministry of Health in its intensive efforts to address the shortage.

The study was funded with the assistance of the National Institute for Health Policy Research.

Citing suggestion :Nirel, N., Grinstien-Cohen, O., Eyal, Y., Samuel, H., & Ben-Shoham, A. (2014). The Projected Supply and Demand for Nurses. RR-665-14. Myers-JDC-Brookdale Institute. (Hebrew)