Socioeconomic Mobility in Israel – A Knowledge Base and Data-Driven Predictive Model

This series of publications presents a comprehensive and innovative study of the mechanisms underlying intergenerational mobility in Israel. Its goal is to provide policymakers with a comprehensive knowledge base for promoting equality of opportunity ‒ from precise identification of the critical points at which gaps emerge, to the development of proactive tools to prevent them.

The series adopts a two-pronged approach that combines in-depth analysis of mobility mechanisms with practical application. First, the research maps the stages of life at which economic disparities between different population groups emerge and widen. In addition, it presents a prototype predictive model based on big data, designed as a social early-warning tool. This tool enables targeted government intervention, prevention of socioeconomic stagnation at the lower end of the income distribution, and the formulation of tailored policies for communities and individuals.

The series was commissioned by JDC-Ashalim and the Ministry for Social Equality and the Advancement of the Status of Women and funded with their support.

Reports in the Series

  1. Socioeconomic Mobility in Israel: A Literature Review

This report reviews the body of knowledge in Israel and internationally on the relationship between parents’ socioeconomic status and that of their children in adulthood. It maps key factors in education, employment, family, and environment that contribute to upward mobility or, alternatively, hinder it and perpetuate inequality.

  1. Socioeconomic Mobility in Israel: At What Stage Do Gaps Between Population Groups Emerge?

This research report identifies the critical points over the life course at which economic gaps widen between different population groups: women compared to men, and the Arab and Haredi populations and the Ethiopian-Israeli community compared to the general population. The report highlights the key vulnerabilities in the system and helps identify the most significant windows of opportunity for government intervention to prevent the deepening of inequality.

  1. Intergenerational Socioeconomic Mobility: A Predictive Model

This report introduces a conceptual shift in the study of inequality ‒ from retrospective analysis of historical gaps that have become entrenched to a prospective approach that looks ahead. It presents a prototype of an applied model based on artificial intelligence and machine learning (decision trees).

The model makes it possible to predict the probabilities of mobility and to identify in advance areas at risks of economic stagnation. This predictive tool can serve government ministries and local authorities in early risk management, in assessing policy alternatives prior to implementation, and in precisely tailoring intervention programs to prevent the widening of gaps in real time.